Rolling forecasts

A projection that re-bases on actuals as each month closes.

Accounting → Forecast.

A static budget ages. A rolling forecast does not: as each month closes it enters the history window and the oldest month drops out, so the projection is always based on what just happened.

Four methods:

• Trailing average — the mean of the lookback window, projected flat. Stable, good for steady businesses.
• Trailing growth — fits the recent trend and continues it.
• Same month last year — uses last year's seasonal shape, scaled by a growth rate. Right for seasonal businesses.
• Fixed growth rate — applies a rate you choose to the last actual.

Configuring: set the lookback (how much history informs it) and the horizon (how far ahead it projects).

Actual months and forecast months are clearly labelled, so a projection is never mistaken for a fact.